NOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance the developing El Niño will become very strong this fall and winter.

Irvine City News | September 29, 2026

UC Irvine researchers are closely watching a strengthening El Niño that could bring wetter conditions and other weather impacts to Southern California this winter.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026-27, with forecasts favoring above-normal precipitation across much of California later this winter.

UCI researchers say the event could also contribute to higher surf, elevated coastal water levels and increased erosion along Southern California beaches. El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter in any specific location, but a stronger event increases the likelihood of typical El Niño impacts.

This article draws on information from UC Irvine and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.